#GE 24: FIVE WINNERS
The Social Democrats
It was a good weekend for Holly Cairns. The young Social Democrats leader gave birth to a baby daughter on election day. Meanwhile, her party has won eleven seats, almost double the amount they won in 2020. It means that the party will definitely be a factor when Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael come looking for a coalition partner.
However, the Soc-Dems may demand a high price for going into power given what has happened to smaller parties like Labour, the PDs and the Greens over the years, with the smallest Government coalition partner often being virtually decimated when it comes to the following election. But the 2024 election was a great one for the Soc-Dems.
Micheál Martin
There were times over recent months when Micheál Martin looked like he may well be on his way out as Fianna Fáil leader, given the rise of Sinn Féin and the alleged ‘Harris bounce’ that we were all hearing about in Fine Gael.
But the Tánaiste ran a very smooth, error-free campaign, and now his party is by some distance the biggest in the new Dáil, with the Fianna Fáil leader set to be Taoiseach in a new coalition arrangement with Fine Gael and one of the smaller parties (or Independents). A remarkable transformation. It remains to be seen if Fine Gael will secure a rotating Taoiseach arrangement.
Fianna Fáil
Despite trailing Fine Gael and Sinn Féin in the opinion polls for the past couple of years, Fianna Fáil have increased their seat numbers on 2020 quite significantly. They will be the biggest party in the incoming Government. This despite FF having been on a downward spiral over the past few elections.
That trend has certainly been halted this time around. Their candidate selection and vote management has worked well in this election.
Independents
The rise of the Independents’ vote continues unabated. Here in Roscommon-Galway, Michael Fitzmaurice attracted a huge vote again (he is with Independent Ireland, but I think most people would say he is an independent).
Around the country, people like Michael Lowry, Mattie McGrath, Verona Murphy, Sean Canney and the Healy Raes and others continue to garner huge support.
Could it be that the Independents might have a role in the formation of a new Government? Maybe Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will avoid Labour or the Social Democrats and instead turn their attention to a handful of non-party TDs as possible suitors?
Labour
Under new leader Ivana Bacik, there were predictions that Labour would struggle in this election, but they have done well, ending up with an impressive eleven seats. Will they go back into Government again?
Similar to the Social Democrats, Labour might be wary of doing so as the price to be paid at the polls at the next election may be too high. They will however surely be tempted by the prospect of places at the cabinet table.
#GE 24: FIVE LOSERS
The Greens
A total wipeout was avoided as Roderic O’Gorman hung on to his seat, but the party suffered massive losses as the smallest of the three outgoing Government parties.
The perception is that the party is ‘anti-rural’ (whether that is right or wrong) and that cost the Greens dearly. It’s hard to know what it says about the public attitude to climate change. In any event, the Greens will have to build from the bottom again.
Gráinne Seoige
The decision by Fianna Fáil to run Gráinne Seoige as a so-called celebrity candidate in Galway West backfired badly as the voters there simply didn’t want to know. If Gráinne didn’t know how tough politics can be, she certainly does now.
Other ‘celebrity’ candidates like Gerry Hutch in Dublin and Billy O’Shea in Kerry didn’t get elected either. Parachuting in a ‘big name’ candidate doesn’t always work.
Stephen Donnelly
The outgoing Minister for Health paid a heavy price in Wicklow after what was a bruising election campaign for him. Donnelly was always a divisive figure having left the Social Democrats to run as an Independent before then joining Fianna Fáil.
Despite being a very capable politician he was always seen as an ‘outsider’ by the Fianna Fáil grassroots in Wicklow and he has now paid the price.
The voting public
This was one of the most downbeat election campaigns in living memory. Apart from the incident in Kanturk with Simon Harris, there was little for anyone to get too excited about.
The debates were devoid of controversy and all parties and none want more housing, a better health service and measures to address the cost of living, so there were no major differences between any of the politicians on the main issues.
The low turnout shows that a lot of people were simply not engaged in the election campaign – which is a pity.
Comeback kids
There were quite a few in this category including former minister Alan Shatter, former TDs (and MEPs) Mick Wallace and Clare Daly, and ex-TD Noel Rock, all of whom tried to get back to Leinster House but failed. Time moves on in politics and eaten bread is soon forgotten.
