ELECTION EYE
Part Three: Athlone Municipal District
As we rapidly approach the upcoming local and European elections on June 7th, I am this week taking a look at the third and final municipal district (MD) in County Roscommon, the Athlone MD. This is the last (certainly not least) of our specials in this series of local election previews before the campaign gets underway in earnest.
The basics
The Athlone MD constitutes the southernmost of Roscommon’s local electoral areas. It stretches from Athleague in its north, down to Monksland near Athlone and back out to Lecarrow. The sitting councillors are, in the order they were seated at the election in 2019 and including the first preference vote (FPV):
Independent, Tony Ward (FPV 1,864) Seated first
Fine Gael, John Naughten (FPV 1,465) Seated third
Fianna Fáil, John Keogh (FPV 1,010) Seated fourth
Independent, Donal Kilduff (FPV 879) Seated fifth
Independent, Laurence Fallon (FPV 815) Seated sixth
Independent, Emer Kelly (co-opted following stepping down by Ivan Connaughton FPV 1,591. Seated second).
An Ivan-sized hole to fill
Next, we will look at the nuance of Ivan Connaughton’s unexpected exit from politics in 2021. Of significant note here this time around is the fact that the second highest polling politician exited politics at that point, with Emer Kelly co-opted into his place. In the absence of Ivan Connaughton from this election, despite his implicit support for Emer Kelly, Ivan’s almost 1600 votes can and will travel far and wide.
Although Ivan contested the 2019 local elections as an independent candidate, he had previously been elected as the Fianna Fáil candidate for his locality – and contested a national by-election and came in second for Fianna Fáil – so it is safe to assume there will be some return of these votes to that party. I think John Keogh will benefit well here. Others will scatter among independents, and I estimate that the bulk of these will go to Tony Ward and Emer Kelly.
Analysis
For some time now, it has been widely rumoured that Independent Donal Kilduff, son of former Fianna Fáil councillor, Paddy Kilduff, will not be contesting the next election. As we go to print, rumour has it that Arnold (Arnie) Donnelly may be running as an independent.
Previously an unknown quantity, Emer Kelly has been very active since her co-option to the council. The youngest member by a country mile, she will appeal to disillusioned voters and apathetic young voters. In theory, if she can capitalise on every single potential first-preference vote (the bulk of them at least) out there in these categories, she has a good chance of retaining her seat.
Domnick Connolly has made a return to his natural home, Fine Gael, following a long spell in the independent ranks of the local authority. He missed out on a seat in the Roscommon MD last time out when he ran as an Independent. Domnick and Cllr Laurence Fallon both left Fine Gael along with Deputy Denis Naughten following the closure of Roscommon Hospital’s A&E in 2011 by the Enda Kenny-led government.
Connolly’s return to his party and shift in constituency makes him a strong candidate for Fine Gael. If John Naughten and Domnick Connolly manage the vote well, there is the potential to take two seats.
Laurence Fallon is an experienced and well established councillor. How the vote will split for Fallon and Connolly – previously allies in different constituencies – now that they are opponents in the same electoral area, is going to make for a tense and interesting day at the count.
Conclusion
Right now, you’d have to say Tony Ward will top the poll and potentially have a large surplus. I’m told by sources in the area that John Naughten too will exceed the quota on the first count with an even larger surplus than in 2019. John Keogh too is a safe bet this time around and with the exit of Ivan Connaughton from politics, Keogh’s core Fianna Fáil vote should be well shored up and get him over the line on the first count, or very close to it. Keogh’s running mate, James Murray, who hails from the north of the MD near Knockcroghery, will be up against a lot of stiff opposition on his doorstep from both independents and Fine Gael.
Sinn Féin’s Joe Harney of Taylorstown, Monksland is likely to get a running mate added to his ticket, as happened in the Boyle MD this week with the addition of Leah Cull to that party’s ticket.
Given the urban population base in Monksland and Sinn Féin being in a poll position going into this election, if a second candidate in the rural area of the constituency is added to sweep rural votes, then it is likely that Sinn Féin will take a seat here. So, it is my conclusion that there are perhaps three seats up for grabs here, and they will be won in a long and arduous stand-off between the remaining candidates all vying for surplus and elimination transfers to get them over the line.
In no other electoral area in Roscommon, and potentially in Ireland, will second, third and possibly fourth preference votes be so important. So, voters: vote early… and go all the way down the line-up!
