All to play for with a week to go
ELECTION OPINION
Seamus Duke
At the time of writing, the general consensus is that this General Election campaign has been fairly dull and run of the mill, with very little in the way of controversy or drama. While that may well be true, the electorate in this constituency are always capable of throwing up an unexpected result – and that could happen this time around too.
The issues here are more or less the same as those we hear about in the rest of the country. They include housing, immigration, farming, crime and the health service.
I have to say that I am surprised that the fact that so many of our talented young people have left the country over the past four or five years has not been an issue. I have heard very little about it during the campaign so far. Last week it was revealed that over 4,600 qualified teachers have left our shores in the past three years. Given that we have a chronic teacher shortage here, that’s an astonishing figure.
But I digress. Locally, we have had many different constituencies over the years. I recall Roscommon-Leitrim, Roscommon-Longford, Roscommon on its own, Roscommon-East Galway, and now Roscommon-Galway. This forthcoming General Election will be the ninth I have covered. Along the way, there have always been interesting twists and turns. In this neck of the woods we like to throw an odd spanner in the works.
This time around? There are eleven candidates scheduled to be on the ballot paper, and while almost all parties are represented, there are a few obvious leading contenders. At this juncture, the three available seats in Roscommon-Galway look certain to be decided between (in alphabetical order!) Martin Daly, Aisling Dolan, Michael Fitzmaurice, Claire Kerrane and Eugene Murphy.
Despite his ‘losing’ a couple of thousand potential voters in his home patch of East Galway – this following a re-drafting of constituency boundaries – I am expecting Michael Fitzmaurice to win a seat without too much bother. He polled 13,077 in 2020, and with the quota this time around expected to be somewhere in the region of 10,000, Fitzmaurice looks ‘nailed on’. He maintains a very high profile with regular appearances on TV and radio.
There are predictions that as many as 25 or even 30 independents will be elected this time around. If that is the case then they will have a big say in the formation of the next Government and it will be interesting to see what Michael Fitzmaurice and his Independent Ireland colleagues do in that scenario.
The next major consideration is where the 8,422 first preference votes that Denis Naughten (not running this time) received in 2020 go on this occasion. One would presume that quite an amount of those would be ‘Fine Gael’ leaning and will therefore favour Aisling Dolan and Dympna Daly-Finn. However, many people I am talking to say that Eugene Murphy could pick up a lot of those votes.
Claire Kerrane has had an impressive first term in Dáil Eireann. Looking back on the 2020 election results it’s clear (going by tallies) that she picked up votes in almost every box in the constituency. If she can repeat that feat she will have gone a long way towards returning to Leinster House.
The situation with regard to Fianna Fáil and the fall-out from the Eugene Murphy episode is very interesting indeed. Martin Daly is a superb candidate and would make a very capable TD. His huge army of canvassers have been working very hard over the past few weeks.
However, there is a sense of injustice in the constituency with regard to how Eugene Murphy was treated by Fianna Fáil, which could lead to a big sympathy vote for him. There is a certain amount of disaffection with Fianna Fáil now, particularly in the North Roscommon area. The big question is: Can Murphy command the votes total needed to be in contention?
Fine Gael are running two strong candidates in Aisling Dolan and Dympna Daly-Finn. While Senator Dolan got a very respectable 5,466 first preference vote in 2020, it will take a massive effort on her part to almost double that number and make it to the Dáil. It may well be that there isn’t a Fine Gael seat in the constituency once again.
The other candidates are: Vincent Beirne (Independent), Andrew Mannion (People Before Profit), Martina O’Connor (Green Party), Cormac Ó Corcoráin (Aontú), and Alan Sweeney (The Irish People). They will all be hoping to attract a good return but it would be a major shock if any of them were to feature in the final shake-up.
So at this stage, with over a week still to go, what is the likely outcome? I’m taking Michael Fitzmaurice to retain his seat, with Claire Kerrane in next – and I’m giving Martin Daly the nod to edge out Eugene Murphy and Aisling Dolan.
Could there be a shock? I am certainly not ruling out Eugene Murphy or Aisling Dolan, but at this stage I will stick with Fitzmaurice, Kerrane and Daly.
There is still time for a few twists and turns before all will be revealed at the Dr Hyde Centre on Saturday and Sunday of next week. As we know from history, it’s seldom straightforward in this constituency.
