Estate agents who are members of the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI) expect national property prices to increase by an average of 6% over the next twelve months. This is up on the 4.5% increase which SCSI agents forecast for the market in the summer of 2024.
The SCSI’s Annual Residential Review and Outlook report – now in its 42nd year – found that 83% of agents now believe current property prices are either ‘expensive’ or ‘very expensive’. When asked where they believe we are in the market cycle, 61% of respondents believe prices are rising but will level off soon.
Gerard O’Toole (Vice President of the SCSI) described current rates of property inflation – the CSO estimates annual rate of inflation at circa 10% – as unsustainable.
“Our survey responses suggest agents believe there will be a shift towards more balanced growth expectations with less emphasis on rapid price increases”, he said. “Given the affordability challenges facing all buyers, particularly first-time buyers, a slowdown or period of market stabilisation would be most welcome”.
Three out of four agents (76%) reported low stock levels – up slightly on last year – with the majority of agents indicating that the lack of supply was the main factor influencing expectations around house price movements. Mr O’Toole said the lack of supply will remain the dominant issue until annual completion levels are ramped up to 40,000 plus.
“A year ago, 40% of agents identified the lack of supply as the main issue affecting price movements, now that number is around 60%. That and the fact three out of four agents (76%) are continuing to report low stock levels, reflect the reality of the Irish property market”, he commented.
“The other main factors that our members believe are influencing price movements include lower interest rates and the availability of credit (12%), access to schemes supporting house purchases such as Help to Buy (8%) and changes in the state of the economy (8%).
“Fifty-three percent of agents report a slight improvement in credit conditions and believe this was the main factor impacting the higher than anticipated price movements in late 2024”.
